The paramilitary group Wagner, previously regarded as Moscow’s armed proxy abroad, is facing an uncertain future after a rebellion led by its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, came to a halt. Prigozhin, who surrendered during the mutiny, has now fled to Belarus, raising questions about the group’s future actions, particularly in Africa.

Investigations have uncovered Wagner’s involvement in various African conflicts, including the Moura Massacre in Mali. The group maintains a significant presence in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Sudan, nations with strained relationships with the West due to historical colonial influences. In 2018, Wagner deployed around a thousand troops to support President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s government in the Central African Republic.

The Kremlin has proposed dissolving the group, with non-mutinous fighters potentially entering contracts with the Russian defense ministry. Nevertheless, the fate of the remaining 5,000 troops stationed in Africa remains uncertain, as Russia’s plans regarding their continued presence in the region are currently shrouded in limited information.