Fiona Nanna, ForeMedia News

5 minutes read. Updated 9:23AM GMT Thurs, 1August, 2024

In recent weeks, the Japanese yen has stunned global financial markets, signaling a powerful momentum shift that has prompted investors to reassess their strategies. The yen has surged 8% against the US dollar in just three weeks, catching many market participants off guard. This abrupt turnaround follows a significant decline that saw the yen plummet to a 38-year low earlier this year.

The swift ascent of the yen has reversed a downtrend that had driven the currency from 140 to the dollar in January to 161 in July. As of Thursday, the yen was trading around 150 to the dollar, erasing about half of the gains that had accumulated for those holding short positions. This sudden volatility is forcing traders and funds, including trend-following commodity trading advisers (CTAs), to re-evaluate their positions or face mounting losses.

With central bank policy meetings in the US and Japan recently concluded, confirming divergent trajectories for interest rates, analysts predict that leveraged investors will play a crucial role in determining the yen’s future path. UBS macro strategist James Malcolm suggests that the ongoing price action will continue to drive the dollar/yen exchange rate, potentially leading to further gains for the yen.

“The current market dynamics are amplifying the yen’s movement,” Malcolm noted. “When trend-followers receive uniform signals from the market, it can exacerbate existing trends quickly.”

For years, shorting the yen—particularly when its short-term yields remained near zero—was considered one of the most lucrative currency trades. This was due to the yen’s consistent decline and low forex volatility. However, recent developments have disrupted this trend. Rising stock markets in Japan are prompting Japanese investors to repatriate funds, narrowing the trade deficit. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan’s recent policy shifts, including two rate hikes within four months and the dismantling of yield cap policies, have undermined the previously stable environment for yen shorts.

Data shows that Japanese investors have withdrawn a net 2.2 trillion yen (approximately $15 billion) from foreign equities this year, a figure significantly higher than the 621.2 billion yen invested in foreign bonds. This shift, combined with recent rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, suggests that the yen’s previous weakness might be cyclical rather than structural.

Macquarie strategist Gareth Berry remains optimistic about the yen’s long-term outlook. “We believe the recent yen weakness is a cyclical phenomenon rather than a fundamental shift,” Berry stated, forecasting a return to 125 yen per dollar by the end of 2025.

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