Fiona Nanna, ForeMedia News

6 minutes read. Updated 7:56AM GMT Tues, 12^th November, 2024

In a year marked by relentless heatwaves and powerful storms, it is now considered “virtually certain” that 2024 will go down as the warmest year on record, according to projections by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service. This year has witnessed consistently high global average temperatures, with scientists forecasting a record-breaking annual increase of at least 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels—making it the first year ever to breach the 1.5°C threshold.

The anticipated rise in 2024’s global temperatures underscores the urgency for international action. The milestone will serve as a critical discussion point at the upcoming United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, as experts from around the globe gather to tackle the escalating climate crisis. COP29’s objective to address climate policies aligns with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C, a mark hoped to stave off some of the most severe impacts of climate change.

Rising Global Temperatures and Human Influence

The primary factor driving this unprecedented rise in temperature is human-induced climate change, with added natural contributions from the recent El Niño weather phenomenon. El Niño, which started in mid-2023 and continued through early 2024, intensified warming by elevating temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, subsequently releasing more heat into the global atmosphere. This year’s data, coupled with recent trends, suggests that even as the El Niño event has faded, temperatures have persisted at unusually high levels.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service has raised concerns that barring an extremely unlikely cooling phase in the remaining months, 2024 will exceed last year’s record of 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, which already set an alarming precedent. According to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus, this year’s data represents “a new milestone in global temperature records,” and likely solidifies the first recorded calendar year to surpass the 1.5°C warming limit.

The Significance of the 1.5°C Threshold

The 1.5°C limit holds a deep symbolic significance, as it was the central target set in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Nearly 200 nations committed to striving to cap warming at this level, hoping to reduce the intensity of climate change’s adverse effects, from melting ice caps to more extreme weather events. Breaching this threshold in a single year does not mean the Paris Agreement has been violated—since the agreement’s measure refers to a 20-year average to account for variability—but it brings the world alarmingly close to permanently crossing this line.

Recently, the United Nations sounded a warning that, based on current global policies, the world could experience warming by more than 3°C within this century. Such a rise would have irreversible consequences on biodiversity, agricultural systems, and human habitats, disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and low-lying regions.

Looking Ahead: The Role of La Niña and Future Climate Outlook

With the El Niño event concluding, climate experts now look toward the possibility of a La Niña phase, which tends to cool global temperatures. The cooling effect of La Niña could, in theory, provide a slight respite from the escalating temperatures. However, predictions for 2025 and beyond remain highly uncertain as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise.

Professor Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, notes the compounding effect of human activity on the climate, stating that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are still rising rapidly. “The warmer temperatures are making storms more intense, heatwaves hotter, and heavy rainfall more extreme, with clearly seen consequences for people all around the world,” he said. He emphasized that stabilizing temperatures by reaching net-zero emissions is “the only way to stop adding to the costs of these disasters.”

An Urgent Call to Action at COP29

The record-breaking temperatures of 2024 signal a pressing call for world leaders and policymakers to act decisively at COP29. This conference will provide a crucial platform for countries to reassess their carbon reduction commitments and enhance policies to prevent a runaway climate crisis. Many experts hope COP29 will catalyze urgent action, enabling nations to avoid even graver repercussions for the planet and its inhabitants.

The year’s temperature records reflect a climate crisis reaching its tipping point, driving home the need for robust measures to combat global warming. As COP29 approaches, the world watches, hoping for a renewed commitment to tackle the most profound challenge of our age: the need to preserve a habitable climate for future generations.

For more information on the science behind global warming and ongoing climate policy developments, visit the European Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Meta Description: With global temperatures set to surpass pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C, 2024 is predicted to be the warmest year recorded. Scientists urge action at COP29 in Baku to curb climate change impacts as intense storms and heatwaves continue worldwide.